A new calculator estimating the likelihood of a robot replacing a job role in the next 20 years has been released.

Following on from research from Oxford University, NPR has released a calculator to estimate the likelihood of a robot automating roles in the next 20 years.

The calculator, created from the research and other key factors such as the amount of negotiation in a role, suggests that mental health and substance abuse workers are the least likely to have a robot take over with just 0.3 per cent.


The researchers examined 702 jobs, picking out skills essential to roles such as creativity and dexterity, to work out whether humans could be replaced by robots.

The jobs most likely to be replaced by robots are accounts, insurance underwriters and telemarketers, with up to a 99 per cent certainty, with legal assistants and models at a high risk of losing their jobs, at 94.5 per cent and 97.6 per cent respectively

The job prospects for waiters and waitresses don’t look great either, as they have a 94 per cent chance of being replaced by robots. The process of moving to automated service has already started, with robotic waitresses serving diners in cafes in China.

Roles that include a high degree of creativity and negotiation are less likely to be taken by robots.

Whilst the study didn’t suggest a timeline for an A.I takeover, it suggested that jobs in office administration and production will be first to be completed by robots. Service, sales and construction jobs will probably be taken over next.

Michael Osborne, one of the researchers on the Oxford University study said:

“I think we can almost guarantee that technology will continue to progress and will ultimately render almost all the jobs that humans do today automatable.”

“We’ve got this fear that the burden of this automation might rest most heavily on the shoulders of those who are least skilled and hence perhaps less well equipped to move into whatever new occupations are generated. “

You can use the calculator on the NPR website


Source: RecruitingTimes